Gonzalo Perez-Seoane, President WM
From the World Economic Forum in Davos and other senior European bodies, begins to hear the phrase “the crisis is over.” In the Spanish case and others like it apostille “we have a new economy and we must adapt.” Is this true, two considerations?.
With respect to the first consideration, “the financial crisis is over”, is visible all the optimism of the business and political leaders of the EU. In USA, it was evident that the recovery progresses, the discourse is more thoughtful and prudent. However, it is good not to be trusted. Latent imbalances exist in nature and diverse backgrounds, which may destabilize the global recovery any time. Along with this, keep forgetting the transcendent and overwhelming lesson of this crisis, the world is round and the economy as well.
The global economy, some positive and its slow recovery, has entered, in my opinion, in a second phase. Phase might be called predictable recovery and assimilation of side effects. Side effects include a bonus especially inflation. Inflation, as expected, and appeared to continue in its current spiral is not entirely unlikely drag many nations to a state of stagflation and hyperinflation weaker. There is a new crisis, what happens is direct macroeconomic consequences of actions taken by Western governments and central banks to save the banking system (initial shock). This new ingredient, which is to afflict economically weak societies, poses a serious new economic challenge worldwide. Challenge, that if progress, presents us with a more complex scenario than the previous situation, since it affects directly to the weakest (centrifuging the crisis on the poorest nations), and impairing effects by rapid global growth, and by their unquestionable and unpredictable social and political effects. In view of the above could be said that the crisis is not over yet, we are simply facing a new phase and to a different macroeconomic scenario.
But perhaps the most interesting part is the second consideration referred to countries like Spain, are we in a new economy and we must adapt?. The question deserves a more extensive reply.
Economic Science is a unique science, characterized by a certain doctrine has chaired long immobility of the past 100 years. With the current crisis prestigious economists, international institutions and central banks have been and are still overwhelmed by events. Just check the statements made by political and business leaders on the U.S. housing bubble and its potential global effects from August 2007 to February 2008 to understand the magnitude of the general nonsense. But why this great embezzlement?. In my opinion, presents the world today, compared to the past, a feature clearly Differential our world today is global. The degree of technological development, communication speed, ease and extent of transport, agility and security in the world of financial transactions, culture and cosmopolitan tastes of the general, now make the world a hyper-active agency and hyper -linked economically, a situation that humanity has never had so far covered. Classical paradigms of economics, at this time and just may be history (efficient market law).
In general, and except for universal Marshall Law (law of supply and demand), the vast majority of existing hypotheses and theorems perceive the economic phenomenon of domestic form. But over dogma, reality. The economic reality we face today, and also suffer, he says frankly that the economy is interconnected and interdependent, it is holistic. All these aspects far prevailing economic thinking and potential source of general intellectual outrage occurred in this crisis. As recently said Robert B. Zoellick, World Bank President, “some of the economic models should be revisited.” Many of them have served a bright stellar role in the development and pursuit of better global economic balance for decades, but today the propositions of some of them dissolve like sugar cubes in water.
No. We are not facing any new economy as some manifest. As understanding of the economic performance which are changing fast, overwhelmed by the reality of the crisis and following the intellectual collapse of the most prestigious and famous financial and economic institutions. After the long intellectual immobility, reality is forcing change archaic thoughts and subsequent economic erroneous economic policies, getting closer, with blows of harsh reality, the true functioning of the free market economy.